Employers will be hiring workers at a strong pace, one economist predicts.

By VICKY ECKENRODE, The Times-Union

ATLANTA - Despite expectations of a slowdown for the state's economy during the next couple of years, employers in the Brunswick metro area should continue to hire people at a strong pace, an economist predicted Wednesday.

"In 2006, the Georgia metro areas with the strongest growth will be Warner Robins, Brunswick and Savannah, which will outpace the state's (rate of job) growth," Rajeev Dhawan, director of the Georgia State University Economic Forecasting Center, stated in his quarterly update.

By the end of the year, Brunswick will have expanded its workforce by 3.3 percent in 2006, compared with the statewide growth rate of 2.1 percent. Next year, jobs in the Brunswick area should jump another 2.7 percent, Dhawan said.

He said the area's shipping business is expected to benefit from cargo diverted from New Orleans as well as the area's ongoing channel-deepening project to accommodate larger ships.

While presenting his report at the Atlanta university, Dhawan said port activity and military base realignments were the reasons for bright outlooks in some parts of the state.

"These are what you call the sexy news coming out," he said.

The less promising news is industries that have bolstered the state's recent economic growth - particularly residential construction - are expected to start cooling down.

Georgia's economy will begin slowing down during the next couple of years for many of the same reasons that growth is moderating at the national level, Dhawan said.

"We can't fight the big picture anymore," he said.

Higher short-term interest rates have made mortgages more expensive, leading to a slowdown in housing construction. Oil prices also have taken a bite out of consumers' spending in restaurants and stores.

While Georgia employers added 92,200 new jobs during 2005, Dhawan said he predicts the state will finish this year with 82,200 more hires before another dip next year. During 2007, Georgia might add only 61,100 new workers - an indication that the state's economy is still plugging along but at a slower pace.

The housing market also has slowed down along the Southeast Georgia coast but not enough to dampen growth, said Vernon Martin, executive director for the Coastal Georgia Regional Development Center, which includes Chatham County and its surrounding area.

"If there's any region that will continue to have some growth, even if it might be moderate, this would be one of the primary ones because of the kinds of retirees that are moving from the Northeast here and in some cases - provided they can sell their property - moving up from Florida," he said.

Dhawan said he also expects the national gross domestic product to drop next year before recovering in 2008.

His predictions are based in part on the assumption that the Federal Reserve, having achieved the goal of moderating the homebuilding market and potential inflation worries, will decide to cut interest rates early next year. Until this summer, the Fed had been steadily hiking interest rates for the past two years.

Dhawan said if the rate cuts do not happen, the looming national economic slowdown could get worse.

"If the Fed does not come in to do the knight-in-shining-armor thing, it could be more of a problem," he said.